Solar and Wind Energy Provide 100% New US Electrical Capacity in September

The New York Times has a very interesting article about how the low price of wind and natural gas generation is causing problems for the nuclear industry and why reactors in addition to Kewaunee may be forced to close.

Large repair bills such as what Crystal River and San Onofre face may make it unprofitable to bring broken reactors back into service.

"Even plants with no pressing repair problems are feeling the pinch, especially in places where wholesale prices are set in competitive markets. According to an internal industry document from the Electric Utility Cost Group, for the period 2008 to 2010, maintenance and fuel costs for the one-fourth of the reactor fleet with the highest costs averaged $51.42 per megawatt hour.

That is perilously close to wholesale electricity costs these days."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/business/energy-environment/economics-forcing-some-nuclear-plants-into-retirement.html?_r=1

With solar PPAs now being signed for less than $0.10/kWh nuclear has an even larger problem on its hands. The 'hours of profit' are shrinking.

robin-moulder

October 25, 2012

Note that a MW of renewable capacity is not equal to a MW of coal, gas or nuclear capacity. In the above article, note that it states renewables are 14.9% of capacity, but only deliver 5.4% of net generation.

For coal, gas or nuclear base load plants, capacity factors of between 85% to 95% are expected and routinely achieved. (capacity factor is actual MW-hr generated in a year divided by (rated capacity x 8,760 hrs/year). For solar, capacity factors are in the range of 20-22%.

So, even if dirt cheap energy storage (much hand waving) were possible, we would need to build renewables of TRIPLE the current installed coal/gas/nuclear capacity to replace it. And I've not heard of any technology for dirt cheap energy storage. Say, 12,000 MH-hr of capacity per base load unit replaced (600 MW capacity for 20 hours). How many batteries is 12 Billion Watt-hours?

Note, in above, by gas plant I am referring to combined cycle units. Simple cycle gas turbines are peaking units and do have much lower capacity factors. In areas with high air conditioning loads, solar is a very good fit for mid-day peaking load to limit fuel (gas) burn in peaking units. But you still have to install the gas peakers, in case of clouds, night time load issues, etc.

But my point is the renewables are NOT a good fit for base load generation.

Bob_Wallace

October 25, 2012

For a moment let's set the realized capacity issue aside. Here's the fact of the post - all the capacity added to the grid in September was wind and solar. No coal. No nuclear. And, surprisingly to me, no gas but I expect the lack of any new gas capacity was simply a timing fluke, there will be a lot of gas added for the year.

Realized capacity is important only as it bears on the final cost of electricity and to a much lesser extent the timing of production.

Now, let's go back to "baseload". In the future grid baseload as we know it ('always on' generation) likely won't be a part of the grid except for geothermal and run of the river/ocean-current generation.

Coal and nuclear will not be feasible to operate on a grid dominated by inexpensive wind and solar. Coal and nuclear require huge capital expenditures and have significant operating expenses. The only way for them to make a profit is to run 8,000+ hours per year on full load and sell higher than cost to produce and service loans.

When the grid has wind producing electricity at $0.05/kWh or less half the time and solar producing for $0.05/kWh or a bit more 20% of the time there are no 8,000+ hours in which coal and nuclear can sell for enough to stay in business. Then there is cheap natural gas generation. We're likely to see a nuclear reactor shuttered in the next couple of months because it cannot compete with wind and gas prices.

It matters not that wind and solar "are NOT a good fit for base load generation". All that matters is that we can supply consumers electricity when they want to use it.

We can do that right now with wind, solar, natural gas, hydro, pump-up storage and geothermal - the stuff we are already using and have been using for decades. We just have to build the right mix of components. And as better technology emerges we can phase out the gas and replace it with storage.

MORE:

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/10/solar-and-wind-energy-provide-100-new-us-electrical-capacity-in-september?cmpid=WNL-Friday-October26-2012

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