Letting the economy speed over the dreaded fiscal cliff at the
end of the year would very likely throw the country into a
recession, though lawmakers will likely save the day and steer
the country away from disaster, a new CNNMoney survey of
economists finds.
At the end of this year, the Bush-era tax cuts and other tax
breaks are scheduled to expire at the same time automatic cuts
to government spending kick in, a combination known as a fiscal
cliff that could send the country sliding into a recession if
left unchecked by Congress.
Lawmakers so far have avoided dealing with tax and spending
issues in an election year, but some have suggested they can
address the problem after elections or even early in 2013 with
extensions or retroactive legislation.
A CNNMoney survey of 17 economists found that 14 believe the end
of tax breaks and the arrival of federal spending cuts would
throw the economy into a recession, with 12 pointing to the
fiscal cliff as the most serious risk facing the economy.
“Should gridlock prevail, business sector investment and hiring
will be stymied, and the household sector will sharply curtail
spending,” said Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research
for accounting firm JH Cohn, CNNMoney reported.
However, all 17 economists agreed the economy will avoid the
fiscal cliff, pointing out that Democrats and Republicans will
agree on a way to extend the tax breaks and prevent the spending
cuts either during the lame duck session of Congress or early in
the new year.
“The politics of disagreement is not good,” said Maury Harris,
chief U.S. economist for UBS.
A Tax Policy Center study finds that failure to do anything at
all about the fiscal cliff could send income, payroll and other
taxes rising for 90 percent of all Americans.
“Lawmakers could soften that near-term hit by delaying or
repealing provisions in the ‘cliff’ or by enacting other
spending and tax policies that would provide offsetting support
for the economy,” the study stated.
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