Swing State
Polls Are Rigged
By DICK MORRIS
Published on
DickMorris.com on October 5, 2012
After Wednesday night's smashing debate victory for Romney, we may
expect the national and swing state polls to change in the Republican's
direction. But not by as much as they should. These polls are biased
in favor of Obama and here's the data to prove it:
From noted Republican pollster John McLaughlin comes a clear and
convincing exposé of the bias of media polls in the swing states of
Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
McLaughlin reviewed exit polls in each state for the past four
elections. From this data about who actually voted, he found that the
party divisions manifest on election day have little to do with the
samples upon which the media is basing its polling. And,
coincidentally, it is always the Republican vote that tends to be
undercounted.
In Florida, for example, McLaughlin finds
that the average of the last four elections produced a turnout of 37%
Democrats and 38% Republicans. But here is the partisan
distribution of the most recent Florida media polls:
9-26: CBS/NY Times = 36% Dem / 27% Rep
9-23: Wash Post = 35% Dem / 29% Rep
So the media polls reflect a 9 point and six point Democratic edge even
though the actual experience of the past four elections has been a 1
point Republican advantage.
Things are no better in Ohio. Here, McLaughlin finds a 2 point
Democratic edge in the past four elections (38% Dem, 36% Rep). But
the media polls show vastly more Democrats and fewer Republicans in
their samples:
9-26: CBS/NY Times = 35% Dem / 26% Rep
9-23: Wash Post = 35% Dem / 27% Rep
9-11: NBC/Wall St Journal = 38% Dem / 28% Rep
Once again, the actual exit poll-measured vote in Ohio shows a 2 point
Democratic edge, but the polls reflect Democratic advantages of 9
points, 8 points, and 10 points respectively.
In Virginia, it's the same story. The last four elections have a
combined 1 point Republican edge, 37-36. But the media polls show
a big pro-Democratic bias:
10/2: Roanoke College = Dem 36% / Rep 27%
9/17: CBS/NYTimes = Dem 35% / Rep 26%
9/16: Washington Post = Dem 35% / Rep 24%
9/11: NBC/Wall St Journal = Dem 31% / Rep 26%
So instead of showing a 1 point Republican edge, these media poll
samples show Democratic advantages of 9,9,11, and 5.
The correct conclusion to draw from all these polls is that Romney is
comfortably ahead in Virginia and Florida while he holds a slight lead
in Ohio. And, remember these polls are all pre-debate!
Also, bear in mind that the undecided vote in all of these polls usually
goes against the incumbent.
That's the real story.
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