Political ads have been filling up television airwaves in the US, with the heated presidential race between Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney less than six weeks away.
Energy issues have been featured prominently in those ads, with Obama talking up his support for clean energy while also championing recent increases in domestic oil and gas production. Romney, meanwhile, has hammered Obama over the high-profile failure of government-backed solar panel maker Solyndra and his administration’s increased regulations on fossil fuels.
So is the energy ad blitz impressing voters? Or are Americans giving the ads a big “meh”?
Probably the latter, if recent polling is to be believed.
The respected polling firm Gallup asked voters in August what the most important issue facing the country was, and only 1% cited energy. That’s down sharply from the 25% of poll respondents who cited energy as the top issue in the days before the 2008 election, in which Republicans coined the rallying cry “Drill, baby, drill!” in response to high oil and gasoline prices.
This time around, the economy, unemployment, general dissatisfaction with government and health care are greater concerns for voters, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of The Gallup Poll.
Energy “doesn’t show up when we [ask voters] to tell us in your own words why you’re voting for the candidates,” he said. “We just don’t see much evidence that it’s a high top-of-mind issue in the campaign.”
The only time energy perks up as a major electoral factor is when gasoline prices rise up, he added. But even when that happens, as it did earlier this summer when gasoline prices surpassed $4 a gallon in many parts of the country, the impact on voter behavior seems muted.
“We asked the question, how high would [gasoline prices] have to be to really affect your family, and people were saying $5/gallon or more,” Newport said. “It didn’t get there, of course. I think Americans have a set point now where these fluctuations up and down don’t make as much difference anymore.”
Larry Sabato, an elections expert at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said energy is “a secondary issue” in the presidential race between Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. But because energy issues are often tied to the economy, he said he still expects rhetoric on both sides to talk up their energy policies in stump speeches and campaign ads.
“Republicans plan to make energy a big part of their appeal since they believe President Obama is vulnerable [on the economy] and has held back progress,” Sabato said. “Energy sells as an issue in coal states, coastal states with offshore drilling, and states with a large solar or wind energy industry, such as Iowa. GOP success in this sector depends on their skill in making clear the ties between energy and jobs.”
Kevin Book, managing director of research at ClearView Energy Partners, agreed and said that if the economy were more robust, both Obama and Romney would moderate their messages to appeal to centrist voters.
“With a tepid economy, however, we expected that both parties would emphasize ‘wedge’ issues aimed at keeping their respective bases from losing interest and staying home from the polls,” Book said in a note to clients. “Energy policy seems to be tracking the broader trend, with both candidates emphasizing differences in recent weeks.”
To the extent that American voters are paying attention, Newport said that both candidates offer up messages that can appeal to the general public.
Polling consistently shows that Americans by a wide margin favor greater development of alternative energy, such as wind and solar, a pet cause of Obama.
But when the economy tends to do poorly, Americans become more receptive to oil drilling and increasing energy supply over conservation, a position most associate with Republicans.
Gallup annually asks voters, “Which of the following approaches to solving the nation’s energy problems do you think the US should follow right now – emphasize production of more oil, gas and coal supplies, or emphasize more conservation by consumers of existing energy supplies?”
For 2012, 51% of voters said they favored more conservation, while 40% favored more production. That contrasts with 61% who favored more conservation in 2008, and 29% who favored more production.
If anything, Newport said that trend may favor Romney slightly.
“We do see at this point and time, there’s probably more sympathy for the drill position and probably less sympathy for the other kinds of approaches,” Newport said. “That’s what I’d say our data shows. Now, alternatives play well, and the American people say they like the idea of alternatives. But when the economy’s bad, the whole idea of drilling sounds good to people.”
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