Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1560 (N04W73 -
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 06/0413Z as
well as occasional low-level C-class flares. No obvious changes were
noted in Region 1560, but limb proximity hampered analysis. Region
1564 (S14W13 - Esi/beta) also produced occasional low-level C-class
flares. It showed minor spot and penumbral growth in its interior
portion. Region 1562 (S22W48 - Dso/beta) showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period. No new regions were numbered. No
Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (07 - 09 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare on day 1. There will be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare during days 2 - 3.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 06/0000 - 0300Z due to periods of southward
IMF Bz and enhanced IMF Bt associated with a solar sector boundary
change. Field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels after
06/0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September) with a chance for unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 128
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  024/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  007/008-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10