Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1 flare occurred at
24/1542Z from new Region 1578 (N21E10).  Another C1 flare occurred
at 24/1931Z from an unnumbered region currently rotating onto the
northeast limb.  Another new region rotated onto the southeast limb
and was numbered Region 1579 (S09E70).  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the reporting period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-3 (25-27 September).  On days
2-3 (26-27 September), the greater than 10 MeV proton probability
increases to a slight chance due to potential activity from active
regions rotating around the southeast limb.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    15/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 137
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  005/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05