Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar flare of the period was an C4/Sf at 1720Z
from an unnumbered region around S18E39. There are currently 9
numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk, however most have
remained rather stable and quiet. A non-Earth directed full halo CME
was observed in both STEREO A-B and LASCO imagery early in the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (28 - 30 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(28 - 30 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 133
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  005/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05