New York (Platts)--4Sep2012/418 pm EDT/2018 GMT

Data released this week should show a 5-million-barrel decline in US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending August 31, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.

The American Petroleum Institute's Weekly Statistical Bulletin will be released a day later than usual because of the US Labor Day holiday Monday. It will be released Wednesday, September 5, at 4:30 EDT (2030 GMT).

Likewise, The US Energy Information Administration will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report a day later than usual, on Thursday, September 6, at 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT).

At 364.524 million barrels for the prior reporting week ending August 24, US crude stocks sat 7.12% above the EIA five-year average. A decline of 5 million barrels, while large, would push stocks to 6.75% above the five-year average, keeping quite in line with year-ago levels.

This week's oil inventory data will be "influenced by Hurricane Isaac and its effect on shutting down more than 500 oil and gas platforms and 50 rigs," said EOXlive analyst Tom Pawlicki in a Tuesday note.

US Gulf of Mexico oil production shut-in by Hurricane Isaac totaled 1,308,362 b/d, or 94.81% as of August 31, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

Estimates for US commercial crude inventories as of the week ending August 31 "were already likely to be pushed lower by a fall in imports," said Pawlicki, after US crude imports shot up during the prior reporting period, according to EIA data. Imports should fall during the latest reporting period due to the closure during the period of various ports as well as the 1 million b/d Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, Pawlicki added.

Meanwhile, analysts expect US refinery utilization to show a decline of 2 percentage points. "[S]ix facilities totaling 1.15 million b/d were shut for the majority of the week, Pawlicki said, with four refineries totaling 1.41 million b/d operating at reduced rates. Pawlicki expects run rates to decline.

Analysts expect US gasoline stocks to have declined by 3.5 million barrels, a direct product of Gulf Coast refineries shut due to Isaac.

Should this be the case, US gasoline stocks will be 3.7% below the EIA five-year average, the lowest level since early June. By comparison, this same time last year, US gasoline stocks were almost 2% above the EIA five-year average -- higher by almost 10 million barrels.

Further, PDVSA's 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery on Tuesday was still running at 40% of capacity as it gradually restarts after being shut in late August by a fatal fire -- one of the worst refinery disasters (See story, 1736 GMT).

Venezuela is a modest exporter of blending components to the US, but depending on travel-time for tankers heading to the US Atlantic Coast, the Amuay refinery may have had a small impact on USAC gasoline inventories which remain exceedingly tight.

Meanwhile, US distillate stocks are expected to have declined 1.5 million barrels for the weekly reporting period ending August 31, according to analysts polled.

US distillate stocks continue to be undersupplied ahead of US winter demand. At 126.060 million barrels for the prior reporting period ending August 24, US distillates are 16.56% below the EIA five-year average. Last year around this time, US distillate stocks were at 175.974 million barrels, or 6.16% above the EIA five-year average.

--James Bambino, james_bambino@platts.com --Edited by Katharine Fraser, katharine_fraser@platts.com

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