Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (02 Apr) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (03 - 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 506 km/s at
31/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3308 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one (02 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day two and three (03 - 04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 119
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  004/005-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2002
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 30 1335 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3309 pfu

Radio Events Observed 01 Apr 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1639   1639    100          1639        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1841   1856    140          1845