Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/0957Z from Region 1713 (N09W06). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at 04/1508Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0918Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3225 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr). III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Apr 129 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 114 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 006/005-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/20 Radio Events Observed 03 Apr 2013 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0431 0438 170 0436 0007 0636 0636 350 0636 0000 0750 0750 370 0750 0000 0935 0935 150 0935 0000 0954 0954 110 0954 0000 1000 1001 430 1000 0001 1022 1022 130 1022 0000 1113 1114 2200 1113 0001 1454 1454 390 1454 0000 1513 1513 130 1513 0000 1619 1621 760 1619 0002 1711 1712 140 1711 0001 2135 2135 110 2135 0000 2352 2352 100 2352 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 1038 1200 2200 1113
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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