Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18/1823Z from Region 1719 (N09W91). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (19 Apr) and likely to be low on day two (20 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 18/1408Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr). III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr Class M 10/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Apr 105 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 006/005-005/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10 Radio Events Observed 17 Apr 2013 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0922 0922 130 0922 0000 0946 0949 160 0948 0003 1347 1347 120 1347 0000 1511 1511 120 1511 0000 1727 1729 1200 1728 0002 2337 2337 150 2337 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 1519 1744 590 1732
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |