Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1591 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02
May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 142
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  008/008-004/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/20

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2009
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 29 1240 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2009
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 27 0915 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1592 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Radio Events Observed 29 Apr 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0156   0156    150          0156        0000  
0242   0242    170          0242        0000  
0318   0319    210          0319        0001  
0413   0414    13000        0413        0001  
0457   0457    120          0457        0000  
0554   0554    100          0554        0000  
0617   0617    250          0617        0000  
1928   1929    280          1928        0001  
2032   2032    160          2032        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
 

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-17
2013 April 28 at 6:36 p.m. MDT (2013 April 29 0036 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For April 22-28

A category R1 (Minor) radio black out was observed on 22 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1726.

A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 26 April due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

Outlook For April 29-May 5

There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts throughout the forecast period.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales