Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02
May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 142
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-004/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2009
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 29 1240 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2009
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 27 0915 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1592 pfu
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Radio Events Observed 29 Apr 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0156 0156 150 0156 0000
0242 0242 170 0242 0000
0318 0319 210 0319 0001
0413 0414 13000 0413 0001
0457 0457 120 0457 0000
0554 0554 100 0554 0000
0617 0617 250 0617 0000
1928 1929 280 1928 0001
2032 2032 160 2032 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-17
2013 April 28 at 6:36 p.m. MDT (2013 April 29 0036 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For April 22-28
A category R1 (Minor) radio black out was observed on 22 April due to
flare activity from active sunspot Region 1726.
A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 26 April due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
Outlook For April 29-May 5
There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts throughout the forecast
period.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |