The Morning Brief - Lignet
North Korean Missile Launch Imminent; Mixed Signals from China
With a new U.S. intelligence report suggesting that North Korea now has
the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead, Pyongyang is expected to
launch a new ballistic missile test within the coming days, possibly
timed to commemorate the birthday of North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung
on April 15. North Korea appears likely to fire one or more ballistic
missiles out into the sea to avoid any risk of their being shot down by
the United States or its allies.
In this special analysis, LIGNET’s experts look at the new intelligence
about a North Korean nuclear warhead as well as mixed signals from China
yesterday that warned North Korea to lower tensions but also chided the
United States, South Korea, and Japan.
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South Korea Will Recover Quickly from North’s Economic Warfare
The stream of rhetoric in recent weeks from North Korea has been mainly
focused on military aggression, but there also is an economic dimension:
The drumbeat of threats has hurt South Korean financial markets. The
effect, however, is likely only short-term, while even a small military
conflict would have significant and lasting economic consequences for
South Korea.
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Libya’s Recovery Threatened by Militias
More than two years after the bloody civil war to oust former dictator
Muammar Qadaffi first began, Libya has been unable to return to the
level of stability required to attract much-needed international
investment. Violence and general disorder could prove difficult for
Tripoli to overcome, especially as the country tries to disarm its
populace.
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Islamists Could Force France to Take Long-term Mali Role
As France launches a fresh military offensive against al-Qaeda-linked
Islamist rebels in northern Mali, it appears increasingly likely that
French forces will remain in the troubled nation. Paris had planned to
withdraw most of its military forces from the West African country by
the end of the year, yet the full scope of its Mali operations could
expand instead.
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Portugal’s Rejection of 'Austerity' the Latest Headache for EU
A decision by a Portuguese court to throw out budget-cutting measures
required by a 2011 EU-IMF bailout is a setback for the Portuguese
economy and the eurozone. While popular opposition to budget cuts will
probably lead the EU to lift the deficit ceiling for Portugal and extend
loan repayment terms, such concessions will complicate current and
future bailout agreements with other eurozone members.
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North Korea Could Conduct Missile Tests on April 15
Reports today that North Korea is readying multiple missiles for test
launches reinforce predictions that this will be Pyongyang’s next move
to force negotiations with the United States and regional countries.
While the missile launches could occur at any time, there is an
increasing belief that they will take place on April 15, the 101st
anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the founder of the North Korean
state and the current North Korean leader’s grandfather.
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Bank of Japan Stimulus a Double-Edged Sword
The Bank of Japan announced that it will pump $1.4 trillion into the
Japanese economy by the end of 2014, essentially doubling the amount of
cash in circulation. It’s a daring gamble, aimed at putting Japan back
onto a healthy road of economic growth after years of stagnation. But
evidence suggests that the side effects could overwhelm the benefits of
such a move.
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Amazon Rainforest the Latest Example of China Energy Grab
As part of its longstanding policy of building ties with developing
countries, China is on course to buy three million hectares of the
Amazon rainforest from Ecuador to help it secure access to mineral
wealth worldwide. Although auctioning meetings for the land took place
in many locations around the globe, including in the United States,
France and Singapore, there is little doubt that Ecuador’s government
will award China the bid.
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