A proposed group letter to Adam Sieminski, the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information AdministrationKen Bossong, Executive
Director SUN DAY Campaign 6930 Carroll Avenue Suite #340 Takoma Park, MD 20912 301-270-6477 x.11
sun-day-campaign@hotmailcom
=================================== September 9, 2013
Adam Sieminski,
Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20585
Dear Mr. Sieminski:
We are writing with regard to the
development of EIA's "Annual
Energy Outlook 2014," the "early release" of which is presently slated
for December 2013.
We believe that EIA's estimates in past issues of the "Annual Energy
Outlook" for future electrical generation from renewable energy sources
in the near- and mid-term
have been unreasonably low and have not been borne out by actual
experience.
Inasmuch as policy makers in both the public and private sectors rely
heavily upon EIA data when making legislative, regulatory, investment,
and other decisions, we believe this situation can have multiple adverse
impacts on the renewable energy industry and, more broadly, on the
nation's environmental and energy future.
Accordingly, we request that EIA
re-evaluate the underlying assumptions and methodology being used in
developing its renewable energy forecasts and provide projections that
more closely reflect the current status and recent, real-world, growth
rates of renewables. This may mean considering and seeking to quantify
factors, in addition to price, that are driving the growth of
renewables, such as grid reliability, environmental externalities, and
consumer preferences.
More specifically, as you may recall, the "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"
issued earlier this year offered the following projections regarding net
electrical generation by renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass,
geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind):
"The share of U.S. electricity
generation from renewable energy grows from 13 percent in 2011 to 16
percent in 2040 in the Reference case.
...
If future natural gas prices are lower than projected in
the Reference case, as illustrated in the High Oil and Gas Resource
case, the share of renewable generation would grow more slowly, to only
14 percent in 2040. Alternatively, if broad-based policies to reduce GHG
emissions were enacted, renewable generation would be expected to grow
more rapidly. In three cases that assume GHG emissions fees that range
from $10 to $25 per metric ton in 2014 and rise by 5 percent per year
through 2040 (GHG10, GHG15, and GHG25), the renewable share of total
U.S. electricity generation in 2040 ranges from 23 percent to 31
percent." We believe this
analysis is flawed. For example, data in EIA's most recent "Electric
Power Monthly" released on July 22, 2013, indicates that renewables
accounted for 14.3% of net generation during the first five months of
2013. (And this number is likely on the low side since it does not fully
capture the contribution from distributed renewables that are not
grid-connected.) That is, renewable
energy sources have already exceeded EIA's lower Reference case
projection for 2040 (i.e., 14%) and in less than 18 months, have
expanded from 13% to nearly 14.5% (i.e., half-way to EIA's higher
estimate of 16% by 2040 in its Reference case). It seems highly
implausible that it will now take another 27 years to grow from 14.5% to
16%. Further, while
hydropower has remained relatively static over the past decade, EIA data
reveal that geothermal grew by more than 16% between 2003 and 2012 and
EIA's most recent "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (released on August 6,
2013) anticipates modest growth for biomass in the near-term.
Meanwhile wind and solar have been experiencing double and
sometimes triple-digit annual growth rates in recent years. Between 2003
and 2012, wind expanded from 11,187 thousand megawatt-hours to 140,089
thousand megawatt-hours while net generation by solar thermal and
photovoltaic has risen from 534 thousand megawatt-hours to 4,342
megawatt-hours. If only the same amount
of new additional generation comes on line from wind, solar, and
geothermal during each of the next two or three decades as was
experienced during the past decade, then even without new policies to
address GHG, renewables would approach and probably surpass the EIA's
lower GHG scenario (i.e., GHG10) estimate of 23%. However, it is far more
reasonable - in light of the rapidly dropping costs for solar and wind
and the mix of new technologies coming on line to more broadly tap all
renewable energy sources - that future contributions from those sources
will be significantly higher in coming years than was added during the
last ten years even if the policy environment remains essentially
unchanged.
Even EIA seems to have
recognized this in its "Short-Term Energy Outlook" which projects that
"wind power generation is expected to grow by 19% this year" while
"robust growth" is foreseen for solar power generation. While EIA's projections
for renewables in 2040 are more expansive if one assumes there will be
broad-based carbon-fee policies to reduce GHG emissions, we believe
these are also unduly modest. If aggressive federal GHG policies should
be adopted, coupled with already-existing and expanding state-level
initiatives, the contribution from all renewable sources, including
geothermal, hydropower, and biomass, would almost certainly expand far
more rapidly than has been the case in recent years and likely exceed
EIA's higher estimate of 31% by 2040. Thus, we reiterate our
request that you re-evaluate the assumptions and methodology being used
to develop the renewable energy forecasts for the "Annual Energy
Outlook" and, at the least, provide projections that more closely
reflect the real-world growth rates of recent years. We appreciate your
consideration of these concerns and would be happy to meet with you to
discuss them further.
Sincerely, |