The chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra
Pachauri, celebrates the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize for
the organisation in 2007
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has warned against drawing too many conclusions from
the
latest leaked version of its upcoming, and eagerly awaited,
Assessment Report 5 (AR5).
This massive tome will be published in four stages over the next
year - the first part, the physical science behind climate change,
will be presented in Stockholm on 26 September.
The process of compiling this report - with several hundred
scientists, 195 governments and over 100 non-governmental
organisations involved - has been particularly leaky, with at least
three confidential drafts
being made public in the last year.
“Start Quote
We've had 1,800 comments on that
15-page document”
Jonathan Lynn
IPCC
According to the latest scoop, the scientists are set to say they
are more convinced than ever that global warming is caused by
humans. They will say they are 95% certain that our use of fossil
fuels is the main reason behind the global rise in temperatures
since the 1950s.
The panel will also outline why global temperatures have been
rising more slowly since 1998, a controversial slowdown that
scientists have been
struggling to explain.
Sensitive questions
According to the leak, they will put it down to natural
meteorological variations and other factors that could include
greater absorption of heat into the deep oceans - and the
possibility that the climate is less sensitive to carbon dioxide
than had previously been believed.
Many climate sceptics
have argued that this is a key factor behind the temperature
slowdown, and a good reason not to believe the more extreme
predictions of those they dismiss as warmist conspirators.
But those involved with the IPCC say that even now, just a month
away from publication, you would be "foolish in the extreme" to take
this latest leak as conclusive.
"It is guaranteed it will change," said Jonathan Lynn, spokesman
for the IPCC. "In September, the scientists will go through the
15-page summary for policymakers, line by line."
Climate change has allowed farmers
in Greenland to expand their crop production
"We've already given it to governments for their thoughts, and
we've had 1,800 comments on that 15-page document," he said.
When the
previous IPCC report came out in 2007, it ran into two major
problems.
The first issue was the discovery of basic errors - including
the embarrassing claim that all the glaciers in the Himalayas
would have melted by 2035.
The second was the so called
Climategate affair, in which leaked emails purported to show
leading scientists trying to manipulate their data to make the
report more damning.
Ultimately, several
investigations showed the accusations of manipulation to be
false.
Last chance saloon?
To try to ensure there was no repeat in this year's report, the
IPCC determined to be as open as possible.
Almost anyone who claimed any expertise in the field could
register to be a reviewer. There have already been several leaks as
a result of this open approach.
"We are not trying to keep it secret," Jonathan Lynn told BBC
News. "After the report is finished, we are going to publish all the
comments and responses so that people can track the process.
"We just think it's misleading to get hold of these drafts and
put them out and draw conclusions from them."
The ongoing problems with leaks is one of the reasons behind the
mutterings that this large-scale, multi-faceted report from the IPCC
could be its last.
There are some who argue that having a mega-event every seven
years is misguided: science is moving much faster than that, and the
process itself is too arduous for the hundreds of scientists
involved.
"There are people who say: why not put all the drafts out there,
let everyone look at them and that will be the end of it," said
Jonathan Lynn. "I think there will certainly be an IPCC in the
future but there may not be these big blockbuster events."
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