Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug,
10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 474 km/s at
07/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5826 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 104
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  007/010-015/022-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/60/60

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2065
Begin Time: 2013 Aug 05 1325 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4421 pfu