Ken Silverstein | Aug 21, 2013

Hold on. We are about to get a blast from outer space, literally. The sun has released super-heated particles that are expected to hit earth by Friday. They are called geomagnetic disturbances that can destroy satellites and power grids.

About every 11 years, the sun enters into the so-called "solar maximum" when violent solar flares explode and the sun expels bursts of material, called coronal mass ejections. The sun is now in the midst of that cycle. The regions most at risk are Canada, the northern United States and Scandinavia, although the southern United States and coastal regions are also susceptible. 

The solar eruptions, which started on Thursday, are expected to hit earth within 36 to 84 hours, says NOAA. Furthermore, the SOHO Spacecraft provides real-time observations of the solar wind, which gives NOAA's forecasters the ability to detect imminent geomagnetic storms and to issue more accurate short-term warnings to utilities, between 20 minutes and 50 minutes.

The electric equipment in today's power systems are designed to operate on alternating current (AC). Solar storms introduce "direct currents," or DC, into the power system. That can cause transformers to saturate, which degrades their performance and produces other undesirable effects such as equipment heating. 

While the risks are difficult to quantify, the monetary damages that could result are much easier to analyze. According to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a single large geomagnetic storm disturbance in the Northeastern U.S. has the potential to cause at least $3 billion-$6 billion in lost production if a transmission grid collapses. Every dollar of lost electric sales costs about $100 in foregone economic output.

If the power grid were to get tripped at one of its interconnections, it could set off a series of cascading events all along the system. The further electricity travels, the more risks there are from harmful electric currents caused by solar weather.

"Geomagnetic disturbances, the earthly effects of solar weather, are not a new threat to the electric sector," says a report written by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U.S. Department of Energy. But recent analyses suggest "that the potential extremes of geomagnetic threat environment may be much greater than previously anticipated.”



Utilities Awakening

Those experts are citing Metatech Corporation and Storm Analysis Consultants, who are saying that if geomagnetic storms hit the transmission system they could result in widespread tripping of the lines and irreversible physical damage to large transformers. As such, NERC and the Energy Department have set out to prepare in advance for such events and to make recommendations.

Among their ideas: Assessing the North American bulk power system to identify areas where upgrades and modifications are most urgently needed. And, having the industry point out the places where extraordinary costs may be incurred before discussing out how such expenditures would be paid -- or whether it is worth it.

It's not theoretical. In 2012, a geomagnetic storm played havoc with airline communications. Perhaps the most damaging event to date has been the 1989 geomagnetic storm that caused a blackout in Hydro Quebec's systems.

What can electric utilities do? They must first use computer-generated models to simulate the effects that increased harmful currents would have on their systems. By studying those results, utilities can understand the nuances of their grids and feel more assured about the strategies they will implement.



They must also depend on their engineers to measure the harmful currents on their own transmission lines. If they are present, danger may be lurking. At certain levels, the damage may be irreversible. 



Otherwise, precautionary measures can be taken, says Palo Alto, California-based Electric Power Research Institute. For starters, transmission operators can reduce power flow through critical transformers, cut the distances that transmissions are flowing and reset protective relays so that they are less sensitive.

American, Canadian and Finnish scientists are all studying the sun and evaluating ways to improve their early detection systems against solar storms. Utilities are awakening to this issue as well, realizing that such solar blasts may need to be preempted, just like other natural occurrences that they have long battled. 


Twitter:@Ken_Silverstein

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