Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/1743Z from Region 1909 (S17W34). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
05/1404Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1224Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1009Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 150
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/008-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/35/35