Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1535Z from Region 1928 (S16W19). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec,
22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
19/1447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2225Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0034Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 153
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Radio Events Observed 19 Dec 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0643 0643 150 0643 0000
1927 1927 110 1927 0000
1942 1942 110 1942 0000
1955 1955 110 1955 0000
2025 2026 170 2025 0001
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
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