Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
29/0756Z from Region 1936 (S17W08). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec,
01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 414 km/s at
28/2300Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2114Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 28/2315Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 137
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 140/130/135
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  006/005-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/20

Radio Events Observed 30 Dec 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0027   0031    370          0030        0004  
0036   0037    140          0037        0001  
0041   0041    230          0041        0000  
0046   0047    150          0047        0001  
0109   0109    100          0109        0000  
0130   0130    120          0130        0000  
0226   0227    120          0226        0001  
0228   0228    170          0228        0000  
0235   0235    170          0235        0000  
0239   0240    130          0239        0001  
0303   0303    160          0303        0000  
0311   0311    100          0311        0000  
0315   0315    110          0315        0000  
0319   0319    260          0319        0000  
0321   0324    210          0324        0003  
0334   0334    110          0334        0000  
0706   0706    150          0706        0000  
0938   0938    100          0938        0000  
0958   0958    100          0958        0000  
1030   1030    100          1030        0000  
1048   1050    150          1050        0002  
1102   1102    100          1102        0000  
1248   1248    150          1248        0000  
1255   1255    150          1255        0000  
1256   1256    130          1256        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0726   0807    290          0738        

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-53
2013 December 29 at 7:19 p.m. MST (2013 December 30 0219 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For December 23-29

R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 23 and 29 December due to flare activity from active Regions 1928 and 1936 respectively.

S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms were observed from 28 December at 2150Z to 29 December at 0645Z due to an eruption that occurred around the west limb on 28 December.

Outlook For December 30-January 5

A chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists due to potential flare activity from active regions 1934 and 1936.

A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists due to potential flare activity from active regions 1934 and 1936 as they move into a more well-connected position.