Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/1512Z from Region 1928 (S17W61). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2208Z from Region 1928 (S16W74). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 354 km/s at
22/0022Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 138
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/35

Radio Events Observed 22 Dec 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0943   0944    120          0943        0001  
1416   1416    150          1416        0000  
2359   2359    130          2359        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1009   1034    170          1025 

Radio Events Observed 23 Dec 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0134   0134    100          0134        0000  
0246   0246    100          0246        0000  
1247   1253    240          1253        0006  
1258   1259    120          1259        0001  
1550   1550    130          1550        0000  
1724   1724    350          1724        0000  
1916   1916    100          1916        0000  
2024   2024    110          2024        0000  
2154   2154    140          2154        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0852   0932    260          0916         

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For December 16-22 R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 19, 20, and 22 December. No space radiation storms or geomagnetic storms were observed. Outlook For December 23-29 R1-R2 (minor-moderate) radio blackouts are likely through the end of the period, with a slight chance for an R3 (strong) or greater radio blackout. There is a slight chance for S1 (minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 28 December. No G1 (minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are predicted in the absence of any transient features.