Solar market conditions "as stable as they can be"

December 19, 2013 | By Barbara Vergetis Lundin

Global solar installations are forecast to be in the 43 GW range in 2014, according to Mercom Capital Group, a global clean energy communications and consulting firm. Market conditions are as stable as they can be in the historically volatile solar industry, according to Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder of Mercom Capital Group.

Mount Komekura Photovoltaic power plant, Japan. Credit: Sakaori/Wikimedia Commons

"Helped by strong demand, the module oversupply situation has improved. Prices are stable, and manufacturers are reporting shipment growth and ramping up capacity," Prabhu said.

With China revising its solar installation goals to 12 GW in 2014 and 35 GW by 2015, Mercom expects installations to total roughly 10.5 GW in 2014. Support for solar is backed by solid goals, policies, tariffs, standards and environmental regulations. China is also putting policies in place to aggressively expand distributed generation.

Along with China, the United States is the other top solar market forecast to grow steadily over the long term. Mercom forecasts U.S. installations to reach approximately 6 GW in 2014, as its solar market continues on a course of strong, steady growth even without a national feed-in-tariff (FiT). Utility-scale projects and distributed generation through third party-financed residential installations have been the catalysts of growth. Third party-owned (solar lease) residential installations have been garnering most of the headlines over the last 12 months, raising more than $3 billion in solar lease funds so far this year to finance installations.

According to Mercom, Japan is a wild card, but is forecast to be the second largest market in 2014 with 7 GW installed. The Japanese government is investigating the large gap between projects approved under the generous FiT scheme and actual installations. The policy stance and support of the Shinzo Abe administration toward renewable energy is still unclear as they review the current energy mix. However, domestic shipments in Japan continue to be robust and lawmakers are taking steps to address grid issues, which include setting up an independent body aimed at weakening utility monopolies.

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http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/solar-market-conditions-stable-they-can-be/2013-12-19