China, India Emerge as Most Promising High-Growth Markets for Solar
Location: Boston
Date: 2013-02-15
Global policy changes and the crystalline silicon module
price crash have brought the solar industry to a pivotal point from
which it must transform and thrive in a cost-conscious environment,
targeting high-growth markets such as China and India, says
Lux Research.
“Past is Prologue: Market Selection Strategy in a New Solar
Policy Environment”
“While some historically strong demand markets will continue to
pay dividends, the real winners going forward will need to make a
few well-informed bets,” said Matt Feinstein, Lux Research Analyst
and the lead author of the report titled, “Past is Prologue: Market
Selection Strategy in a New Solar Policy Environment.”
“Successful players will anchor business in key developed regions
like the U.S., Europe, Japan, and China, and place informed bets in
markets like South/Central America, the Middle East, and Africa,
through new offices or partnerships,” he added.
Lux Research analyzed the risk vs. reward, based on policy and
market factors, for both distributed and utility-scale solar in
countries around the world. Among their findings:
- Europe shines for distributed generation. Established
markets remain fruitful for distributed generation despite
downturns in demand and reduced feed-in tariffs. Markets such as
Germany and Italy have demonstrated a strong preference for
rooftop systems and have strong existing channels to market.
- Utility-scale generation soars in emerging markets.
High-growth markets come with high risks as well, but emerging
economies of India, China, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia are
set to become solar powers. Competition is booming in the last
three in particular, and each will exceed installation targets.
- Fortune favors the bold. In solar, firms that take
calculated risks and expand quickly into foreign markets will
boost success, as First Solar and many Chinese module
manufacturers have shown. As the Chinese industry consolidates,
opportunities exist for other global players.
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