The Morning Brief - Lignet
Spanish Slush Fund Scandal Increases Pressure on Government
Pressure is growing for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to resign
over corruption allegations that are putting at risk the country’s
economic recovery efforts. Resolving these allegations, however, will
take time and Rajoy still has a good chance of surviving and recovering
from them, as LIGNET explains.
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Japan Looks to Become a Bigger Player on World Stage
An exclusive LIGNET source says Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants
to pull Japan out of its post-World War II shell and become a bigger
player in world affairs. But Abe may have a difficult time persuading
President Barack Obama at a meeting this month to lend U.S. support to a
more aggressive Japan, especially as it concerns Japan’s bitter
territorial dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands.
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Slovenia: Government Teeters on Brink of Collapse
The outlook for Slovenia is becoming increasingly dismal as the
country’s prime minister, Janez Jansa, is locked in a fight for the
survival of his government after one of the five parties in his
center-right coalition withdrew on January 23. The party’s move came
after Jansa refused to step down following corruption accusations. The
instability is making it increasingly likely that the government may
have to request a bailout from the European Union and International
Monetary Fund in order to avert a financial meltdown.
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Iran’s Jailing of US Pastor Spells Trouble for Obama
Iran’s recent sentencing of an Iranian-American pastor to eight years in
prison for “evangelizing” is a sign of the increasingly radical nature
of the regime and does not bode well for international efforts to
pressure Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program. The sentence also
poses a conundrum for the Obama administration, which is already facing
the case of another American being held by Iran.
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Hoekstra: New Middle East Instability Stems From US Failure to
Look Ahead
In an exclusive interview with LIGNET, former Congressman Pete Hoekstra
says he believes Israeli officials had no choice when they ordered an
attack this week on a convoy in Syria that allegedly was carrying
antiaircraft missiles to Lebanon. Hoekstra also discusses his broader
concern that the failure of U.S. officials to look beyond immediate
events in the Middle East, such as the overthrow of Mubarak in Egypt or
Qaddafi in Libya, now appears to be a serious mistake that has led to
growing instability in several Middle Eastern and North African
countries.
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Russian Economy Set to Outpace Europe But Not World
New economic data suggest that while the Russian economy is on track to
make significant gains over the next 20 years, surpassing Germany,
systemic problems and a dependency on oil income, coupled with enormous
growth in other regions, mean its economy will still trail significantly
behind the United States, China and India. Nevertheless, Russia's growth
relative to Europe's could have a major impact on European economic and
security policies, as LIGNET explains.
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2013 World GDP to Be an Encore of 2012
The global economy in 2013, despite some small signs of optimism, is
poised to mirror the last year’s sluggish performance. From the United
States to the eurozone, uncertainties across the world’s developed
regions will not only negatively affect market confidence in general but
also drive down demands for imports. For the emerging economies, this
could translate into another year of unsatisfactory growth.
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China to Boost Nuclear Program with Rail-Based ICBMs
China is reportedly planning the development of a nuclear missile system
that can hide in underground tunnels and be transported by train, making
it harder for the West to monitor. The news of the rail-based missile
system comes after China made major strides in the development of its
nuclear program last year and raises serious questions about its
so-called “no first use” pledge for its nuclear weapons.
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High-Level UK Debate on the Implications of North Korea's Human
Rights Atrocities
International concern is growing about the human rights situation in
North Korea as reports emerge about cannibalism caused by starvation,
torture, and the country’s estimated 250,000 political prisoners living
in brutal prison camps. This special analysis by a senior LIGNET analyst
in Europe looks at a recent high profile debate on this issue in the UK
House of Lords.
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Ecuador: Correa Follows Chavez Playbook for Re-election
Although Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is set to easily win
re-election to a third term next month, he is taking no chances and has
resorted to the playbook of his close ally and mentor, Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez. This includes demonizing banks, cracking down on
the media, embracing anti-American rhetoric, and appealing to his base
with generous handouts.
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Progress Unlikely at New International Trade Talks
Despite the World Trade Organization's prediction that a new round of
global trade talks this December could infuse $1 trillion into the
global economy and help end the global economic slowdown, a much more
modest outcome is more likely. The World Trade Organization has been
ineffectual in lowering trade barriers and most countries are likely to
continue to favor bilateral agreements and regional free trade
agreements over a new global trade pact.
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