Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/2138Z from Region 1640 (N28W48). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05
Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
04/1909Z. Total IMF reached 6.3 nT at 04/0648Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.2 nT at 04/0112Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 143
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05