Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2013

*RETRANSMISSION*

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West
limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29
Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 098
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 100/110/120
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10