The Morning Brief - - Lignet
Venezuela: Reports of Chavez’s Grim Health Spur Political Crisis
Unconfirmed reports that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is on life
support in a Cuban hospital, coupled with the government's refusal to
answer questions about his condition, have thrown Venezuela into a
political crisis. With the January 10 presidential inauguration fast
approaching, the opposition is demanding the government “tell the whole
truth” about Chavez’s health. Chavez supporters are hinting that the
inauguration should be postponed until the president’s health improves
or that he be sworn in from his sick bed. The opposition says both of
these scenarios would violate the Venezuelan constitution.
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Journalists Expected to Face Record Arrests in 2013
As regimes in many countries become more authoritarian and militant
activity increases, journalists are at greater risk than they have been
at any time in the last 20 years. 2012 was an especially bad year for
journalists and with continuing crackdowns on the press in a number of
countries, it’s likely that 2013 could be equally bad, or worse.
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Iraq: Violence and Unrest Likely to Grow in 2013
Iraq continued to wrestle with a growing number of protests and
insurgent attacks as 2012 drew to a close, igniting fears that sectarian
violence will escalate in 2013. A possible spillover of the civil war in
neighboring Syria and allegations by Iraqi Sunnis of growing influence
of Iran have amplified concerns that recent demonstrations in Iraq could
drive the country back to the carnage of 2005-07.
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Why Globalization May Be a Thing of the Past
The growth in the volume of world trade has consistently exceeded that
of world income (GDP) over the past 60 years, but the gap is narrowing.
Attempts to liberalize global trade, which confer the greatest benefit
to consumers, have run aground. Long, thin supply chains have been cut
as regionalization and localization gain ground over the forces of
globalization.
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Lebanon Plays Catch-Up For Offshore Gas Exploration
Lebanon appears finally ready to pursue exploration of its potentially
large offshore natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean Sea as its
tries to catch up with Cyprus and Israel which began moving forward
developing their offshore energy reserves several years ago. A new U.S.
proposal to resolve maritime border disputes is crucial to Lebanon’s
energy ambitions, but will require Lebanese officials to stand up to
efforts by Hezbollah and Iran to block an agreement.
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Croatia: EU Entry Marks End of an Era
Croatia’s entry into the 27-member European Union (EU), though a big
step for a country that emerged from a bloody war for independence just
two decades ago, could prove to be a mixed blessing. While the stability
associated with being a part of the EU will boost its economy in general
and tourism industry in particular, rising inflation due to hikes in
energy prices may offset the immediate gains.
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Turbulence Expected in South Asia in 2013
South Asia is likely to experience a year filled with political turmoil
as most of the countries in the region are approaching elections that
are likely to be marred by intensifying protests and increased militant
activity.
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Syria: Little Hope for New UN Peace Plan
As Syrian opposition forces continue to gain momentum on the ground,
UN-Arab League Syria Peace Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been pressing for a
new peace plan that calls for an end to violence and a political
transition in Syria. But while the plan includes a cease-fire and the
formation of a new government, it leaves open the possibility that the
Assad regime could remain in power -- a non-starter for the Syrian
opposition.
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Hoekstra Sees Growing Middle East Instability in 2013
Former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra, in an
exclusive LIGNET interview, worries that instability seen in Middle East
countries during 2012 spurred by the 2011 Arab Spring will continue this
year. He believes all eyes will be on Egypt and President Mohammed
Morsi, but also worries about how Islamist extremism could be spreading
to other nations and regions. Hoekstra also raises questions about the
September 11, 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi
and what was really going on there.
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Asia-Pacific: Economic Outlook Strong in 2013 Despite Debt
Concerns
Most Asia-Pacific economies are likely to see continued economic growth
in 2013 as regional trade lowers dependence on exports to the West.
China’s economy is expected to grow at 8.4 percent in 2013 after falling
to a 13-year low in 2012. Beijing will probably continue to pause
attempts to move its economy away from heavy dependence on exports but
could face trouble from wasteful stimulus spending that helped the
Chinese economy rebound in the fourth quarter. Many regional economies –
especially Japan’s – could be hurt by rising debt levels this year,
although a weakening of the yen and Japanese economic stimulus efforts
could lead to a turnaround in the Japanese economy.
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Iran: Expert Says Ahmadinejad Probably Thinks Regime Will Try to
Kill Him in 2013
Political tensions will be running high in Iran in 2013 as President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s last term in office draws to a close. Michael
Ledeen, author and scholar with the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies, tells LIGNET in an exclusive interview that tensions
between Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have become so
poisonous that Ahmadinejad likely believes Khamenei will order that he
be killed after he leaves office. Ledeen also discusses the strength of
the Iranian opposition and why the Obama administration must stop
ignoring it.
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Will Russia and China Fill Power Vacuum in Central Asia?
As the NATO-led International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF)
prepares to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014, Western influence in
Central Asia is on the verge of a major decline. Regional supply routes
- developed since 2001 for the war in Afghanistan – have boosted Western
influence in the region, but will soon lose their importance. Russia,
which has so far judged that ISAF’s campaign in Afghanistan mostly
supports its security interests, is preparing to fill a Central Asian
power vacuum that looks set to emerge in 2014.
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Spain: ‘Bad Bank’ Faces Difficult Start
The Spanish financial sector is in the midst of major structural
reforms, a condition for recently agreed bailout loans, but the outlook
for the country’s economy will remain gloomy well into 2013 and 2014.
Madrid hopes to isolate bad bank debts in a so-called ‘bad bank,’ but
this plan is meeting unexpected resistance, as LIGNET explains.
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China’s Illegal Fishing Fleet Dominating World's Oceans
Argentina’s capture of two Chinese ships last week that were fishing the
waters off Patagonia highlights China’s expanding and illegal hunt for
fish far from its shores in waters clearly belonging to other countries.
The Chinese government likely had no knowledge of the whereabouts of the
boats because it doesn’t track fishing vessels. But it could, and
chooses not to, likely because the growing aggression of Chinese
fishermen is in line with China’s growing aggression that includes a
refusal to recognize maritime boundaries.
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Russia: Adoption Ban Latest Sign Obama’s “Reset” Has Failed
Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new law which
prevents American families from adopting Russian children. Ostensibly a
measure to protect his country’s children from abuse in the U.S., in
reality it is retaliation against a law signed in December by President
Barack Obama which imposes sanctions against Russians guilty of human
rights abuses. All of this is more evidence that Obama’s plan to “reset”
U.S.-Russian relations has failed, as LIGNET explains.
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