The Morning Brief - Lignet
Afghanistan: Obama’s New Exit Plan Jeopardizes Stability
President Barack Obama’s surprise announcement that the United States
will draw down its forces in Afghanistan in a matter of months — rather
than in 2014 as expected — seriously jeopardizes Afghan stability. The
decision, made public last Friday following a meeting with Afghan
President Hamid Karzai at the White House, imperils U.S. efforts to
adequately train Afghan security forces, conduct effective
counterterrorism operations and deter future Taliban attacks.
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Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr’s Bold Power Play
Once the thuggish leader of Iraq’s most violent militia, Muqtada al-Sadr
is now attempting to transform himself into a unifying statesman by
leveraging widespread anger by both Shiite and Sunni factions against
the country’s overbearing leader, Nouri al-Maliki. Sadr may fail in his
attempt, but he should not be underestimated given his track record of
successively navigating Iraqi politics, as LIGNET explains.
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Al-Qaeda in Sinai Growing Stronger, Threatening Egypt, Israel
Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, a lawless desert between Israel and the
mainland of Egypt, is increasingly populated with al-Qaeda-linked
militants who are likely to pose a bigger security threat to both
countries in 2013. More worryingly, Egypt’s domestic political problems
and Israel’s preoccupation with the West Bank and Gaza will likely limit
the ability of both to deal with the threat.
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Bonds: Five Themes for a Turbulent Year
2013 will be a turbulent year for bonds and exchange rates, overturning
the phony stability of the last few months for bonds and the past few
years for currencies. There has been a rising trend in the volatility of
bond yields since 2008 in the 10 major economies and the euro area,
reflecting four years of extraordinary and often unanticipated policy
moves. In this special analysis, Dr. Peter Warburton, director of
London-based Economic Perspectives Ltd, discusses five themes for a
volatile global bond market in 2013.
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Egypt Might Ride Out Dire Economic Crisis in 2013
Egypt faces a vicious cycle of political crisis feeding into economic
crisis after it failed to deliver on promised reforms in order to secure
a much-needed IMF loan. A slew of bad economic news – ranging from
unfulfilled oil purchase orders to dwindling foreign currency reserves –
indicates the Egyptian economy is in extremely poor shape and could be
facing a crisis that could increase unrest in 2013. However, LIGNET
judges that the Egyptian economy will not collapse this year because its
major international backers probably are prepared to give the Egyptian
leadership time and because they believe the country’s political
situation may stabilize in 2013.
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