The Morning Brief - Lignet
Terrorist Attack on Algerian Gas Plant Pre-Planned
The terrorist attack and taking of hostages on January 16 at a gas
production facility in Algeria appears to have been planned several
weeks in advance by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in anticipation of a
French intervention into Mali. The outcome of an Algerian operation to
free the hostages is still unclear as are the number of hostages and
hostage takers who were killed. Recent press reports indicate that the
Algerian operation may still be ongoing. Meanwhile, progress has been
made against Islamist rebels in Mali, with Malian troops retaking a key
town in the center of the country.
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Cypriot Bailout Will Test EU’s Resolve
Negotiations over a Cypriot bailout package will be a litmus test for
the eurozone’s credibility. The talks offer the currency bloc a chance
to either embellish its credentials as having installed a fresh set of
systemic tools to address Europe's lingering economic woes or come to
terms with the stark reality that its efforts to date have been simply
inadequate.
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Former Navy SEAL Says Clinton Faces Tough Questions on Benghazi
Scott Taylor, a former U.S. Navy SEAL, discusses in an exclusive LIGNET
interview some important unanswered questions about the terrorist
attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton must answer when she appears before Congress next week.
Taylor says the American people deserve candid answers from Clinton on
what the Obama administration knew about the Benghazi terrorist attacks
and how they were handled. Taylor also touches on the French operation
Mali and why al Qaeda-linked terrorists have set up operations in that
country.
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Mali Conflict Turns Global as Islamists Take Hostages in Algeria
The French intervention in Mali to stop radical Islamists from taking
control of the country turned into a global conflict yesterday when
Islamist terrorists at an Algerian gas pumping facility took 65 or more
hostages from several countries – including the United States, Japan,
and Europe. Thirty-five hostages and 15 of the hostage takers reportedly
were killed this morning in an Algerian airstrike.
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China’s Anti-Satellite Test Will Add to Space Arms Race Worry
Although China will likely describe an expected rocket launch this month
as a missile defense test, most experts believe this launch will be a
smokescreen for a controversial anti-satellite test. If this is the
case, it will be the latest indication of China’s intention to develop
space weapons that will put U.S. security and economic interests at
risk.
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Brazil May Get Red Card For World Cup, Olympics
As Brazil prepares to host the 2014 World Cup soccer tournament and 2016
Summer Olympics, the two biggest sporting events in the world, it’s
struggling to curb rampant crime and clean up its many drug-ridden
slums. These problems are likely to grow increasingly worse in 2013 as
Brazil pushes forward with infrastructure improvements that ignore the
plight of the local population. Given that the economic benefits of
hosting these events don't usually outweigh the costs, Brazil may find
itself asking whether it is all worth it.
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Afghanistan: Money Drain an Ominous Sign
With wealthy Afghans now parking their money in Dubai at extraordinary
levels, Afghanistan’s future appears shakier than ever. The same thing
happened before the Taliban seized power in 1996 and the reoccurrence of
the phenomenon is further evidence that dark days are ahead for the
country, as LIGNET explains.
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Mali: Islamist Rebels Tougher Than France Anticipated
France expanded its intervention into Mali over the last 24 hours after
Islamist rebel fighters proved to be better armed and more capable than
anticipated. With new plans to send 2,500 French troops to Mali, France
appears unwilling to rely on West African troops to deal with the
challenge from the rebels who seized control of northern Mali last
spring and are turning the area into a haven for al-Qaeda-linked
terrorists. The French intervention is likely to succeed but raises
concerns about the resolve of the international community and the
effectiveness of the United Nations in dealing with major security
threats, as LIGNET explains.
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Japan Slowly Shifting Course on Defense Policy
An increasingly assertive China, coupled with the threat posed by North
Korea, is driving Japan to reconsider its defense posture, but fiscal
troubles and lack of political flexibility may hamper this effort. The
new Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has proposed
increasing defense spending by 120 billion yen ($1.3 billion). However,
Abe will also need to overcome budget limits on military spending.
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Australia: Oil and Gas Production to Remain Stable in 2013
Despite the leveling off of an Australian oil and gas boom that has
boosted companies like Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and
Strata-X Energy, new production and exploration activity – particularly
in liquefied natural gas and in finds around the western coast – will
likely allow production to remain stable in the near term. Overall
supply still seems to be declining, but the biggest threats to
Australia’s oil and gas industry are likely the increasing cost of doing
business in the country as well as China’s increased production.
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A Return of Exchange Rate Volatility in 2013
The unsustainability of monetary easing efforts – including in the
United States – as well as continued economic problems in Europe and
efforts by Japanese officials to drive down the yen probably will lead
to a return of foreign exchange (forex) volatility in 2013, says Dr.
Peter Warburton, director of London-based Economic Perspectives Ltd., in
this special analysis.
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France’s Underlying Malaise Will
Soon Hit Spotlight
Since the reunification of Germany more than 20 years ago, the
world’s sixth-largest economy has been progressively overshadowed and
out-maneuvered by its larger neighbor, France. Deeply committed to the
European project and central to its success, France has been considered
too large a target by the vultures that have gathered to anticipate the
death of the euro.
Russia’s Newest Submarine: A Loud Message to World
With the commissioning of the Yuri Dolgoruky, the first submarine to hit
the Russian fleet in two decades, Russia’s navy is now “back in the
game.” The new sub is designed to carry advanced nuclear ballistic
missiles and is super quiet. The quickening timelines of Russian
submarine production coupled with missile tests announced for 2013
suggest that while the Obama administration is moving toward reducing
military spending and cutting American and Russian nuclear arsenals,
Russian President Vladimir Putin is moving in the other direction.
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Saudi Arabia and Iraq at Odds Over Oil Production
OPEC’s two biggest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have
traditionally been able to work together in the oil cartel despite their
intense geopolitical rivalry. As a consequence, OPEC has maintained
production quotas that have put steady upward pressure on prices. But
now, with Iraq’s production dramatically increasing and the effect of
international sanctions on Iran’s output leveling out, Saudi Arabia has
a new rival in OPEC.
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Czech Election Could Lead to Communist Resurgence
The Czech Republic recently pushed through constitutional changes aimed
at addressing a perceived democratic deficit, but one change in
particular risks dragging Czechoslovakia back into the hands of its
former overlord: the Communist Party, under which Czechs suffered
repression of varying degrees from 1948 until the 1989 Velvet
Revolution.
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Radical Islam a Growing Concern in the Balkans
The increasing influence of radical Islamists in the Balkans poses a
growing threat and could become a significant challenge in 2013.
Regional leaders are concerned that this ideology could become more
appealing to young, unemployed Muslims over the coming year as ongoing
economic problems plaguing the region worsen.
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Expert: Peace Will Prevail in Northern Ireland
Dr. Martyn Frampton, a professor of history at Queen Mary, University of
London, told LIGNET in an exclusive interview this week that the unrest
in Northern Ireland is the result of the dissatisfaction of “very small,
unrepresentative minorities” with the peace process, and that the
province is unlikely to return to the level of violence seen during the
Troubles, when bombings were a daily occurrence.
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India/Pakistan: Kashmir Violence Raises Tensions But Probably
Will be Contained
Relations between India and Pakistan have descended to a four-year low
following a series of violent incidents on the Kashmir border, known as
the Line of Control (LoC). While clashes in this long-disputed region
are not new, they may have a greater effect on India-Pakistan relations
and regional stability given the uncertain security situation in
Afghanistan.
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China: ConocoPhillips Resumes Operations; China Eyes Shale Gas
Overcoming government sanctions resulting from a 2011 oil spill, U.S.
oil giant ConocoPhillips [NYSE: COP] will resume crude oil production at
China’s Penglai offshore oil field with state-owned partner CNOOC and
simultaneously embark on shale gas exploration efforts in a joint
venture with state-owned Sinopec. Meanwhile, both Royal Dutch Shell
[NYSE: RDS] and Chevron [NYSE: CVX] have moved forward with their own
shale gas exploration deals, while BP [NYSE: BP] and Total [NYSE: TOT]
have expressed considerable interest in the country, believed to have
the world’s largest reserves of shale gas.
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