The Morning Brief - Lignet
Egypt: Explosion in Violence Shows Morsi’s Lack of Control
A sudden deterioration of the security situation in Egypt has become so
serious that Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was forced to call a
state of emergency and put soldiers on the streets of some cities to
make civilian arrests, tactics reminiscent of the Mubarak regime.
Although the Egyptian opposition has tried to pressure Morsi over the
outbreak of violence, the recent unrest is a product of the political
vacuum in the country and restless young and poor Egyptians who appear
to be hostile to all politicians.
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Mali/UK: Cameron Troop Deployment Decision Leads to Fear of
Mission Creep
British Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday said the UK will send a
“sizable amount” of British troops to Mali, the same day that French
Prime Minister François Hollande praised advances by French and Malian
troops and indicated he hopes to soon turn over offensive operations in
Mali to regional African forces. Cameron said British forces will not
engage in combat, but this could change if it turns out that foreign
al-Qaeda commanders are directing the Islamist rebels in northern Mali,
increasing the chance of the conflict becoming a guerrilla insurgency.
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Shale Gas Deal With Shell Could Make Ukraine Energy Independent
A $10 billion deal with Royal Dutch Shell has the potential to turn
Ukraine into a major supplier of gas to Western Europe and free it from
its reliance on Gazprom. But Gazprom may not be ready to let it go. The
Russian-owned gas giant has reacted to news of the Ukraine’s deal with
Shell by demanding $7 billion from a Ukrainian gas company. It will
likely take other steps as well to try to keep Ukraine in its grasp, and
under its control.
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Rustmann Frustrated With Clinton’s Non-Answers on Benghazi
In an exclusive LIGNET interview, Fred Rustmann, a former member of the
CIA’s elite senior intelligence service, expressed serious concerns not
just about Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s refusal to provide
answers to important outstanding questions about the September 11, 2012
terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi but also about the
attack as a symptom of declining American influence in the region.
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Syria: Russia and Israel Express New Fears of Regime Collapse
New, unusually blunt warnings about the situation in Syria by Russia and
Israel reflect fears by both states that a collapse of the Assad regime
is growing closer. However, warnings by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu probably are also in part related to political maneuvering as
he strives to form a new governing coalition after the recent Knesset
elections.
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Colombia: Peace Talks Threatened by New FARC Attacks
The oldest insurgency in Latin America, the band of Marxist
revolutionaries known as FARC, ended its two-month-long ceasefire last
week when it launched attacks on an oil outpost and engaged in direct
combat with the Colombian military. The peace talks that began late last
year between FARC and the Colombian government will move forward, but
real progress is threatened by FARC’s unwillingness to disarm and
renounce violence.
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Global GDP Growth Continues to Wane
Although inflationary momentum slowed in 2012, inflation rates remained
elevated and well above target in the vast majority of major economies.
As a result, GDP figures appear better than their inflation-adjusted
equivalents. In this special analysis, Dr. Peter Warburton, director of
London-based Economic Perspectives Ltd., looks at 2012 GDP growth using
a chart that tracks 55 countries over 15 quarters.
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North Korea Likely to Test a Nuclear Device in 2013
Although bellicose rhetoric by the North Korean regime is nothing new,
its recent threats against the United States and South Korea were
unusually vitriolic and probably set North Korea on an unalterable path
to test a nuclear device this year. Pyongyang’s threats represent a
major escalation in its rhetoric and a new challenge to regional and
American security. In this special analysis, LIGNET assesses the meaning
of North Korea’s new threats and discusses the likely size and
capabilities of its nuclear and missile stockpiles.
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UK Takes Step Towards EU Exit
Earlier this week, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced an “in-out”
referendum on British EU membership for some time between 2015 and 2017,
triggering a wave of uncertainty over the country’s economic outlook.
Business leaders are divided on the prime minister’s statement, with
many welcoming the firm stance while others expressed concerns over how
it would affect investment.
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New U.S. Special Ops Unit to Advise Mexico on War with Cartels
The Pentagon’s new special operations unit sent to help the Mexican
government in its fight against the drug cartels will teach Mexico's
military the tactics used to hunt down terrorists in Iraq and
Afghanistan. But this education and training could take years and the
U.S. special forces will be consigned to a backseat role in the fight
against the cartels, forbidden to participate in armed combat.
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Jordan: Election Results a Big Win for King
With a higher than expected turnout and an overwhelming victory by
loyalist candidates, this week’s elections in Jordan appear to have
vindicated the reform agenda of King Abdullah II. Nevertheless,
independent Islamists and leftist opposition candidates still managed to
win nearly a quarter of the seats in parliament despite a boycott by the
Muslim Brotherhood and will probably continue to be a thorn in the side
of the government.
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