US efficiency savings to offset load growth by 2025: DOE
Washington (Platts)--17Jan2013/631 pm EST/2331 GMT
Utility spending on electric efficiency programs will double by 2025 and
energy savings from these customer-funded programs will offset the
majority of predicted load growth for that period, according to a report
released Thursday by a Department of Energy national laboratory.
Efficiency programs, driven largely by state laws and regulations, in a
"medium case" scenario are expected to increase annual incremental
savings for electric-utility customers from 18.4 TWh in 2010, about 0.5%
of electric utility retail sales, to 28.8 TWh in 2025, about 0.8% of
retail sales, DOE Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory researchers
said.
Under the study's "high case" scenario with more aggressive deployment
of efficiency programs for electric utilities, energy savings could hit
41.6 TWh by 2025, yielding an average annual decline for electricity
retail sales of 0.18%.
The rise in savings levels "in combination with modest underlying
drives for load growth, could potentially lead to flat, or even
negative, load growth over the next 10 to 15 years," the LBNL study
said.
Savings levels for the "medium case" and the "high case" scenarios could
be achieved with existing efficiency technologies, the study said.
The Energy Information Administration's latest forecast projects US
retail electricity sales will grow at a compound annual rate of 0.58%
for the 2010 to 2025 period.
ICF International Vice President Bill Prindle said the DOE lab study's
findings were "on good footing," noting that EIA's outlook on annual
load growth has been declining for several years.
A number of factors, including the national economy, real estate
development, federal appliance and building codes and the weather,
combined with efficiency programs can contribute to driving down load to
possibly negative levels, he said.
"We could see some negative load growth in some regions," said Prindle.
Kevin Cooney, a managing director in Navigant's energy practice, also
said the lab report was on par with forecasts on the impacts of
efficiency measures.
"These numbers look pretty consistent, or even a bit conservative in
terms of load growth being limited by ratepayer funded programs," said
Cooney. He added that it "will take a while" to get to a national
average of negative sales, but he expected a number of states will
"already there by 2025."
Utility customers are expected to contribute $9.5 billion -- up from the
2010 baseline of $4.8 billion -- to electric and gas efficiency programs
by 2025, on average, according to the study, "The Future of Utility
Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States:
Projected Spending and Savings to 2025."
Spending on customer-funded electric utility efficiency programs alone
is forecast to rise from $3.9 billion to $8.1 billion by 2025 under the
study's "medium case."
Under the study's "high case," electricity customers would spend $12.2
billion on efficiency and $5.5 billion in the "low case," by 2025.
The cost of and savings from the efficiency programs over the next
several years, however, depend on various factors, the researchers
noted.
"The pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take
will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated
both with the broader market and policy context and with the
implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency
programs themselves," the study said.
--Cathy Cash,
cathy_cash@platts.com
--Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh,
keiron_greenhalgh@platts.com
© 2013 Platts, The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.platts.com
|