US oil boom fuels security fears in the Middle East
Washington (Platts)--14Jan2013/301 pm EST/2001 GMT
For more than four decades, the so-called "oil-for-security" deal has
worked like this: Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries have
assured the US that they will supply as much crude as America wants to
buy. In exchange, the US military has helped keep the peace in the
critically important but volatile Persian Gulf region -- a security
presence that has allowed those countries to keep their oil exports
flowing.
But now that the US is producing much more of its own oil due to the
shale-drilling boom, some of America's Persian Gulf allies are growing
increasingly fearful that the US will abandon its longstanding security
commitments in the region, according to President Barack Obama's former
national security adviser.
"In the Arab mind, they can see a scenario where -- maybe not tomorrow,
or next month, or next year -- but they can see a long-term scenario
where this so-called oil-for-security deal that we've had with them for
over 40 years could be at risk," James Jones, a retired Marine Corps
general who advised Obama from 2009 to 2010, said in an interview.
Jones, who now works on energy issues at a Washington think tank
called the Bipartisan Policy Center, said the Obama administration's
efforts to improve trade relations with China and other Asian countries
are also giving Middle Eastern oil producers cause to believe that the
US is distancing itself from them and their crude.
Jones declined to name the Middle Eastern countries that he says harbor
these types of fears, which he summed up as, "Our dependence on their
main product will be lessened, and therefore our attention could be
lessened."
It is impossible to overstate the significance of the US shale-drilling
boom, which started ramping up in earnest in about 2008 due to
technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.
These ongoing developments recently led the Paris-based International
Energy Agency to forecast that the US will overtake Saudi Arabia as the
world's largest oil producer before 2020, and that America will be
energy independent by 2030.
Jones emphasized that he does not believe that the US will abandon its
longstanding security commitments in the Middle East, saying America's
interests are far too entrenched in the region to risk that kind of
break.
"Even if we wanted to disassociate ourselves, I don't think a country
like the United States with global security responsibilities could walk
away anytime in the foreseeable future from our security obligations in
the gulf," Jones said.
Nevertheless, Jones said some of the US' Middle Eastern allies remain
unconvinced, and that the Obama administration should do more to ally
their fears as a means of maintaining stability in the region.
Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, a Washington think tank, echoed that view.
Alterman said officials in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab
Emirates and Bahrain have all expressed trepidation over the US
shale-drilling boom and the Obama administration's increasing focus on
Asia.
"All of these countries have different moods ... but I think there is a
general belief that a number of things are coming together that will
shift their relationship with the US," Alterman said.
Aside from the surge in US oil production, Alterman and Jones said
Middle Eastern countries are also worried about the Obama
administration's recently announced "Pivot to East Asia," a strategy
which includes developing new relations with China and expanding trade
and investment on that continent.
"If you look at the geopolitical situation from their eyes and you throw
in the fact that we have announced a pivot towards Asia, when you pivot
towards one direction it means you're pivoting away from another," Jones
said. "It's a natural reaction."
But according to some policy experts, that fear is largely unfounded --
but for different reasons. Gal Luft of the Institute for the Analysis of
Global Security, a Washington think tank, said that for starters, the
so-called "deal" involving access to Middle Eastern oil and US security
in the region has long been overstated.
"The United States is not dependent on the Persian Gulf for oil, and
never in its history was dependent," Luft said, noting that currently,
only 9% of the total US oil supply comes from the Middle East, and that
it has never been above 15%.
The possibility of the US abandoning its Middle Eastern security
commitments thanks to its surge in domestic crude production is also
widely scoffed at by senior-level executives from across the oil
industry. Only 5% of executives who were polled recently by the Gulf
Intelligence UAE Energy Forum said they believed the US will become less
willing to provide military security in the Middle East. A full 67% said
the US will continue to protect gulf energy exports for at least a
decade, on the grounds that the US is still vulnerable to price swings
in the global oil market.
--Brian Scheid,
brian_scheid@platts.com
--Edited by Jason Lindquist,
jason_lindquist@platts.com
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