Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1055Z from Region 1791 (S14E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 433 km/s at 15/1151Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2255Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/2248Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 114
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  015/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  009/008-009/010-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/50

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2048
Begin Time: 2013 Jul 10 1655 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1067 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.