Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1516Z from Region 1785 (S09E76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
610 km/s at 01/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2342Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5846 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 108
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2038
Begin Time: 2013 Jul 01 0840 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5847 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2038
Issue Time: 2013 Jul 01 0858 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jul 01 0840 UTC
Station: GOES13
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Radio Events Observed 01 Jul 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.