Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0008Z from Region 1785 (S12E36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
04/1948Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1108Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6615 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 138
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  016/020-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20

Radio Events Observed 04 Jul 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0012   0012    140          0012        0000  
0411   0411    370          0411        0000  
0709   0709    110          0709        0000  
1654   1655    1600         1654        0001  
1822   1822    110          1822        0000  
1847   1847    260          1847        0000  
1925   1925    140          1925        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.