Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
08/0122Z from Region 1785 (S09W16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 343 km/s at
08/0945Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0735Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 231 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 119
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/005-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/35/25
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-27
2013 July 7 at 11:22 p.m. MDT (2013 July 8 0522 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For July 1-7
Category R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 03 July due to
flare activity from active sunspot Region 1787.
Outlook For July 8-14
There is a chance for category R1 (minor) radio blackouts through the
outlook period.
Radio Events Observed 07 Jul 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0055 0055 250
0055 0000
0053 0053 650
0053 0000
0057 0058 950
0058 0001
0547 0548 1200
0548 0001
0554 0554 160
0554 0000
0609 0609 120
0609 0000
0750 0750 300
0750 0000
1036 1102 390
1101 0026
1148 1151 920
1150 0003
1750 1750 110
1750 0000
1800 1800 120
1800 0000
1825 1825 110
1825 0000
1923 1923 100
1923 0000
1930 1930 320
1930 0000
2243 2243 100
2243 0000
2352 2352 110
2352 0000
2355 2355 110
2355 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
1136 1703 690
1537
Radio Events Observed 08 Jul 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
1111 1111 260 1111 0000
1322 1322 130 1322 0000
1442 1442 110 1442 0000
1447 1447 180 1447 0000
1608 1608 230 1608 0000
1636 1636 130 1636 0000
1739 1739 100 1739 0000
1943 1943 210 1943 0000
2030 2030 190 2030 0000
2120 2120 140 2120 0000
2124 2125 240 2124 0001
2158 2159 260 2159 0001
2302 2302 130 2302 0000
2305 2305 100 2305 0000
2312 2314 130 2312 0002
2316 2316 100 2316 0000
2338 2338 110 2338 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
1132 1245 330 1133
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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