Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1757Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 494 km/s at 11/1322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1256Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3338
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul) due to an
expected CME passage.

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    30/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 113
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  009/008-010/015-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/65

Radio Events Observed 25 Jan 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2044
Begin Time: 2013 Jul 10 1655 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3654 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Radio Events Observed 10 Jul 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0329   0329    130          0329        0000 
0332   0332    110          0332        0000 
0425   0425    180          0425        0000 
0429   0429    100          0429        0000 
0601   0601    260          0601        0000 
0637   0637    180          0637        0000 
0654   0654    230          0654        0000 
0817   0817    120          0817        0000 
1345   1345    120          1345        0000 
1354   1354    110          1354        0000 
1358   1358    130          1358        0000 
1445   1445    110          1445        0000 
1502   1502    120          1502        0000 
1502   1502    120          1502        0000 
1600   1600    100          1600        0000 
1600   1600    100          1600        0000 
1704   1704    270          1704        0000 
1721   1722    310          1722        0001 
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0318   0440    340          0426