Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
21/2136Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1622Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4016 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 110
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  004/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2055
Begin Time: 2013 Jul 10 1655 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4017 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging

 resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.