Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/2143Z from Region 1800 (S09W32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
498 km/s at 25/2024Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/1946Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/1946Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2586 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 107
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  013/018-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/35/20