U.S. Mortgage Rates On The Move After Latest From The Federal Reserve

June 2013 FOMC Minutes send U.S. mortgage rates higher

For the first time in 3 days, mortgage rates climbed Wednesday.

The culprit? A Federal Reserve publication which provided too few insights into the central banker's plan for future economic stimulus.

In the absence of information, Wall Street bid rates up, adding to the upward pressure U.S. mortgage rates have felt since May. Mortgage rates remain low, but rest above the lifetime lows set last quarter.

Click to see today's live mortgage rates now.

QE3 May Last Longer Than Wall Street Thinks

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve published the official meeting minutes from its last Federal Open Market Committee.

The release was right on schedule -- the Fed publishes minutes three weeks after an FOMC meeting concludes.

The Fed Minutes is the much longer companion piece to the group's post-meeting press statement.

Whereas the press statement can only highlight "big ideas", the minutes delve deep to recount the discussions and debates which help to shape the Federal Reserve's current and future monetary policies, and to provide insight into the U.S. and global economic outlook.

The Fed's June 19, 2013 statement was just 6 paragraphs and 714 words. The same meeting's minutes ranged through 88 paragraphs and 8,100 words. The extra words show a Federal Reserve determined to help the U.S. economy regain solid footing over the long-term, but divided about how to achieve that goal best.

For example, all but one Federal Reserve participants said that the Fed should continue to buy mortgage bonds in the open market via the QE3 program, a move which helps to suppress U.S. mortgage rates and stimulate job growth.

Half of those wanting QE3 to continue said that the program should end before the start of 2014.  The other half said QE3 should continue into 2014, at least.

U.S. Housing Boosting Consumer Spending, Wealth

The Fed Minutes contained other notes about the U.S. economy, including conversation on the improving labor market and a slowdown in inflation.

By charter, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maximize employment and maintain stable prices. Right now, the group believes it's making progress toward both goals, although unequally.

QE3 figured into these conversations. Discussion points around the program included :

  • Using QE3 to raise inflation rates toward the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, ignoring labor market factors
  • Leaving QE3 in place until the labor market shows "further improvement" and stability
  • Being cautious of sending mixed messages to Wall Street via public statements and speeches

The Fed Minutes also revealed economic optimism among Federal Reserve participants, buoyed by U.S. housing market. Consumer spending is up, it was noted, despite recent tax increases and just modest wage growth -- a move attributed to rising household wealth and home equity.

Fed participants showed conviction that housing market growth would be sustained over the medium-term, however, several members expressed concern that rising mortgage rates since May could "crimp demand".

U.S. home buyers are thus far undeterred. Demand for purchase mortgages remains high.

Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate?

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a 2-day meeting scheduled for July 30-31, 2013. The Fed is not expected to add new market stimulus, nor is it expected to reduce or remove stimulus which already exists. Markets, however, will continue to gyrate.

QE3's end-date plays big into the future of mortgage rates. The longer that the program lasts, the lower that mortgage rates will go. Expect Federal Reserve members, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, to speak to markets openly as a way to control a rise in rates.

The Federal Reserve may not worry about higher rates harming the economy, but there's a general feeling that rapidly-rising rates does no good for anyone. For now, mortgage rates should remain within a range, making this a good time to get locked.

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About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. You can also connect with Dan on Twitter and on Google+.

 

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