IHS predicts "dampened demand" for EU PV

June 18, 2013 | By Barbara Vergetis Lundin

Global photovoltaic installations are predicted to grow at double-digit rates, despite a decrease in European PV installation, according to IHS.

Forecast of top-10 countries for solar installations in 2013, based on MW installed. Japan is expected to be No. 1 based on installation revenue. Source: IHS Inc. June 2013

Although European installations are projected to fall by more than 6 GW, in part, due to incoming EU anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese modules that became effective on June 6^th, IHS predicts global installations will grow to 35 GW in 2013 -- up 11 percent from 31 GW in 2012 -- driven by a surge in demand in Asia. As a result of these duties and changes to incentive structures, IHS predicts total European PV installations will fall to 11.6 GW in 2013, down 33 percent from 17.7 GW in 2012, with the biggest declines in Germany (down 3 GW) and Italy (down 2 GW).

"Although the EU Commission has given a small window of opportunity by reducing the tariff to 11.8 percent for 60 days, IHS still expects dampened demand," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research, IHS. "This decline comes in stark contrast to the sharp increase in module shipments from China as buyers stockpile ahead of the next tariff increase in August. As a result, IHS has cut its European forecast for the second half of 2013 by 1.3 GW -- a nearly 20 percent reduction from our previous outlook."

Asia will be a force to be reckoned with when it comes to growth and is forecast to exceed 15 GW for the first time -- accounting for 45 percent of global demand, making the Asian market larger than Europe for the first time. China and Japan will account for the majority of growth, becoming the two largest markets in 2013 based on volume, according to IHS.

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