Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
03/0725Z from Region 1762 (S29W35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
779 km/s at 03/0647Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0227Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/2011Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8298 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 112
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  007/008-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/25

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2024
Begin Time: 2013 Jun 02 1445 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4709 pfu

Radio Events Observed 02 Jun 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0806   0806    250          0806        0000 
0837   0837    200          0837        0000 
1930   1930    100          1930        0000 
1939   1940    370          1939        0001 
2131   2131    120          2131        0000 
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1951   1955    120          1955      

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For May 27-June 2

Category G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms were observed on 01 June and only G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed  on 02 June in response to a coronal hole high speed stream.

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackout were observed on 31 May due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1760.


Outlook For June 3-9

No space weather storms are expected.