Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1424Z from Region 1765 (N09W50). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (11 Jun, 12 Jun) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0342Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0310Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1479 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 093
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 095/100/105
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-23
2013 June 9 at 7:52 p.m. MDT (2013 June 10 0152 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 3-9

Category G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms were observed on 07 June due to effects from a combination of multiple coronal mass ejections from 03 June and a coronal hole high speed stream.

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 05 June and category R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 07 June. Both of these events occurred due to flare activity from active Region 1762.

Outlook For June 10-16

No space weather storms are expected.

Radio Events Observed 10 Jun 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0906   0906    360          0906        0000  
1729   1729    110          1729        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.