Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun,
15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
13/0331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 786 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 099
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15

Radio Events Observed 12 Jun 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Radio Events Observed 13 Jun 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0149   0149    220          0149        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.