Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0812Z from Region 1772 (S20E15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun,
19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
17/0427Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 124
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/15
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For June 10-16
No space weather storms were observed.
Outlook For June 17-23
There is a chance for category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 21-23 June
due to possible flare activity from the return of old Region 1762.
There is a chance for a category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm on 21-23
June due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
Radio Events Observed 16 Jun 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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