Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1132Z from Region 1778 (S16E49). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for isolated M-class flares on day one (25 Jun) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jun) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
618 km/s at 24/1112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2115Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
24/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10700 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jun), have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two and three (26-27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    30/20/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     30/20/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 121
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  009/010-006/008-009/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/40

Radio Events Observed 24 Jun 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0820   0820    270          0820        0000  
0854   0854    160          0854        0000  
1130   1131    670          1130        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 17-23

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 21 June and 23 June due to flare activity from active sunspot Regions 1777 and 1778.

A Category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm was observed on 23 June due to solar activity from active sunspot Region 1777.

Outlook For June 24-30

There is a chance for Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 24-25 June.

A Category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is likely to continue on 24 June with a chance to continue on 25 June.

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2033
Begin Time: 2013 Jun 23 0230 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 10653 pfu