Shell: Tear down this energy platformJun 17 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Nareerat Wiriyapong Bangkok Post, Thailand
Solar could become the world's largest source of energy, but government support is critical to drive clean energy use in addition to market forces, says the energy giant Royal Dutch Shell. Under its New Lens Scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy until 2100, Shell projects a dramatic increase in solar power, with photovoltaic panels becoming the world's largest primary energy source by 2070. This so-called Ocean scenario, however, sees oil and coal still dominating the world's energy use until mid-century amid the prosperous yet volatile energy landscape. Another scenario called Mountain foresees moderate economic growth and governments maintaining strong roles in energy initiatives focusing on energy security. Natural gas becomes the backbone of the world's energy system, being used more widely in transport by the 2030s before carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology evolves to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. CCS is the process of capturing CO2 from large industrial installations such as power stations and refineries and transporting and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally underground. Shell forecasts world energy demand could double as the global population heads towards 9.5 billion by 2060. Speaking during a visit to Bangkok, Khong Cho-oon, Shell's chief political analyst, said renewable energies have opportunities to develop in Asean countries, given the abundant supply of agricultural produce. However, state support is needed to drive demand and reduce the cost of clean energies such as solar. Taxing carbon emissions and other measures will speed the adoption of technologies to manage emissions, particularly CCS, and governments should look at these to address climate change threats, he said. Chief executive Peter Voser said these scenarios underscore the critical role that government policies could play in determining future consequences. Public policy will likely have the greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels and renewable energies, improvements in energy efficiency and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. "These scenarios show how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds," he said. "They highlight the need for businesses and governments to find new ways to collaborate and foster policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy and improve energy efficiency." While both scenarios see global CO2 emissions dropping to nearly zero by 2100, the Ocean scenario envisions greater fossil fuel use and higher total CO2 emissions over the century than the Mountain scenario, which would likely affect the global climate more seriously. The Mountain scenario envisions the growth of nuclear power in global electricity generation, with a market share surging 25% by 2060. By the end of the century, cars and trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen could dominate the road after demand for oil peaks in 2030. In the Ocean scenario, CCS captures only about 10% of emissions by mid-century without strong support from policymakers, before rising to 25% in 2075. Slow uptake is the main reason electricity generation becomes carbon-neutral 30 years later than in the Mountain scenario. Mr Khong said compared with the previous five-year energy scenario made in 2008, the world is moving towards more turbulent transitions in geopolitics, the global economy and the energy landscape. "We need to look at long-term trends to see the big changes and possible impacts they can make on our daily lives," he said. http://www.energycentral.com/functional/news/news_detail.cfm?did=28987560 |