EIA analysis: US crude stocks fall 1.314 million barrels as refiners up runs

Analysis of US EIA data: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Drop 1.314 Million Barrels on Higher Refinery Runs


New York - March 20, 2013


U.S. commercial crude oil stocks unexpectedly fell 1.314 million barrels to 382.661 million barrels for the reporting week ended March 15, as refiners raised utilization rates across much of the country, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday.


Analysts polled Monday by Platts anticipated a 2-million-barrel build in inventories.


Crude inventories fell in three of five reporting districts, sliding 1.33 million barrels in the U.S. Midwest to 114.815 million barrels, and 2.751 million barrels to 53.474 million barrels along the West Coast.


Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma – the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract – fell by 286,000 barrels to 49.029 barrels, the lowest level since the reporting week ended December 14.


By contrast, stocks rose 2.353 million barrels to 183.783 million barrels along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and by 587,000 barrels to 11.447 million barrels along the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC).


The decline in crude inventories was likely helped by a sharp increase in refinery utilization across much of the country. Crude inputs rose by 520,000 barrels per day (b/d) over the week to 14.514 million b/d, pushing U.S. refinery utilization rates 2.5 percentage points higher to 83.5% of capacity.


More than half of the increase was concentrated in the Midwest, where crude inputs rose by 294,000 b/d in to 3.444 million b/d, bringing regional run rates 7.4 percentage points higher to 90.7% of capacity.


Refinery runs also rose along the U.S. Gulf and West coasts by 1.5 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively.


Analysts had expected a much smaller 0.5-percentage-point uptick in runs.


Meanwhile, crude oil imports fell 218,000 b/d to 7.317 million b/d last week.


U.S. gasoline stocks dropped an expected 1.48 million barrels to 222.83 million barrels last week, the lowest level since the week ended December 14.


The decline comes despite a pullback in implied demand*, which fell 303,000 b/d to 8.324 million b/d.


Gasoline imports to the U.S. Atlantic Coast – home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract – fell sharply, down 364,000 b/d to 354,000 b/d last week, potentially related to the recent jump in the cost of biofuel credits, or Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs).


Despite this, USAC gasoline stocks rose 157,000 barrels to 53.918 million barrels last week.


U.S. distillate stocks fell 672,000 barrels to 119.765 million barrels last week, the EIA data showed, as imports fell 188,000 b/d to 66,000 b/d.


Implied demand for distillates rose by 232,000 to 3.580 million b/d.


Analysts polled were expecting a draw of 2.5 million barrels.


* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.


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