EIA analysis: another build in crude oil stocks

On the same day that the Energy Information Agency reported the lowest US net petroleum import dependence since the early 90′s, the same agency reported yet another build in crude oil stocks. The two aren’t really linked: the import dependence figure is from December, and the stocks are from last week. But it’s all part of a decent level of supply for the US. You can read the analysis here.

Analysis of US EIA data: US commercial crude oil stocks continue to rise

New York - February 27, 2013

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose for the sixth straight reporting week, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil stocks climbed 1.13 million barrels over the week ended February 22 to 377.518 million barrels, despite a sharp increase in refinery utilization and a decline in domestic production.

The overall increase in commercial crude stocks supported data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, which showed a 904,000-barrel rise. Analysts polled by Platts on Monday anticipated a 2.6 million barrel increase.

Crude oil stocks increased along the East Coast, up 640,000 barrels to 11.8 million barrels, and also climbed on the Gulf Coast, up 1.1 million barrels to 174.6 million barrels.

Midwest crude stocks fell by 200,000 barrels – nearly half of which was due to a 75,000 barrel decline in stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point of the New York Mercantile Exchange’s (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract. Stocks at the storage hub stood at 50.584 million barrels, down from 50.659 million barrels the week previously.

Refinery utilization rate jumped by 2.2 percentage points nationally to 85.1%, increasing in four of the five reporting districts, while crude oil inputs increased by 381,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 14.803 million b/d.

Raw inputs to Gulf Coast refineries increased 182,000 b/d to 7.322 million b/d, boosting refinery utilization rates in the region by 2.1 percentage points to 83.9% of capacity.

Midwest crude oil inputs rose 113,000 b/d to 3.408 million b/d, after refinery utilization in the region increased by 3.1 percentage points to 91.6% of capacity.

Domestic crude production declined by 22,000 b/d to 7.096 million b/d, but imports increased by 269,000 b/d. Imports increased in four of the five reporting districts – jumping by 216,000 b/d in the Midwest and by 151,000 b/d along the West Coast – but declined by 172,000 b/d along the East Coast.

U.S. gasoline stocks continued to decline over the course of the reporting week, falling 1.857 million barrels to 228.495 million barrels as an increase in implied demand* outpaced growth in both domestic production and product imports.

Gasoline inventories have fallen over the last three reporting weeks to the tune of 5.540 million barrels, despite largely flat demand. Throughout the week ended February 22, implied gasoline demand increased by 160,000 b/d to 8.597 million b/d, its highest level since the week ended December 21.

Along the East Coast – home of the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX contract – gasoline stocks increased by 264,000 barrels to 59.8 million barrels. Inventories fell sharply along the Gulf Coast, sliding 1.9 million barrels to 75.5 million barrels.

Gasoline production increased by 275,000 b/d to 9.211 million b/d as refiners increased utilization, while imports of the fuel rose by 70,000 b/d to 575,000 b/d. The increase in gasoline imports was particularly concentrated along the East Coast – where imports rose 48,000 b/d to 495,000 b/d -- and the U.S. Gulf Coast – where imports rose a surprising 63,000 b/d to 65,000 b/d. Imports declined along the West Coast by 43,000 b/d.

API data showed a 1.444 million barrel decline in U.S. gasoline stocks, while analysts had anticipated a 1.5 million barrel fall.

Distillate stocks increased by 557,000 barrels to 124.184 million barrels, marking the first upward tick in inventories since the week ended January 18. Implied demand for the fuel fell a sharp 306,000 b/d to 3.502 million b/d over the reporting week, while production increased by 212,000 b/d to 4.484 million b/d.

The increase in distillate inventories contradicts Tuesday's API data, which showed a 1.743 million barrel decline.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.

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http://www.platts.com/PressReleases/2013/022713