Montez says a good estimate
is roughly 12 percent.
The study, released Monday by the journal Health Affairs, found
declining life expectancy for women in about 43 percent of the nation's
counties.
The researchers, David Kindig and Erika Cheng of the University of
Wisconsin, looked at federal death data and other information for nearly
all 3,141 U.S. counties over 10 years. They calculated mortality rates
for women age 75 and younger, sometimes called "premature death rates,"
because many of those deaths are considered preventable.
Many counties have such small populations that even slight changes in
the number of deaths produce dramatic swings in the death rate from year
to year. To try to stabilize the numbers, the researchers computed some
five-year averages. They also used statistical tricks to account for
factors like income and education.
They found that nationwide, the rate of women dying younger than
would be expected fell from 324 to 318 per 100,000. But in 1,344
counties, the average premature death rate rose, from 317 to about 333
per 100,000. Deaths rates rose for men in only about 100 counties.
"We were surprised" by how much worse women did in those counties,
and by the geographic variations, Kindig said.
The study wasn't the first to reach those conclusions. Two years ago,
a study led by the University of Washington's Dr. Christopher Murray
also looked at county-level death rates. It too found that women were
dying sooner, especially in the South.
Some other studies that focused on national data have highlighted
steep declines in life expectancy for white women who never earned a
high school diploma. Meanwhile, life expectancy seems to be growing for
more educated and affluent women. Some experts also have suggested
smokers or obese women are dragging down life expectancy.
The Murray and Kindig studies both spotlight regional differences.
Some of the highest smoking rates are in Southern states, and the
proportion of women who failed to finish high school is also highest in
the South.
"I think the most likely explanation for why mortality is getting
worse is those factors are just stronger in those counties," Murray
said, adding that abuse of Oxycontin and other drugs also may add to the
problem.
Some also think the statistics could reflect a migration of healthier
women out of rural areas, leaving behind others who are too poor and
unhealthy to relocate. That would change the rate, and make life
expectancy in a county look worse, explained Bob Anderson of the CDC's
National Center for Health Statistics
"We shouldn't jump to the conclusion that more people are getting
sicker in these geographic areas than previously," he said.
But that is open to debate. Migration didn't seem to affect male
death rates. Murray disagrees with the theory, saying he has tracked a
great deal of movement from urban areas to less-populated counties.
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Online:
University of Wisconsin study,
http://content.healthaffairs.org
University of Washington search site for specific county life
expectancies, http://bit.ly/13CgCla
http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-world/ci_22715369/life-expectancy-getting-shorter-some-u-s-women